Erik Kostson
Ansys Employee

That is really impossible to answer (how long it takes).

It all depend on how many nonlinear iterations you have (more for longer problems and that are hard to converge), and how long each nonlinear iteration takes (the larger the model the more it can take), and of course if we use multiple cores, hpc, ... and many other factors.

In the end of the day you should see in the task manager that the apdl solver is running taking some memory, and that your force convergence graph is gradually updated and so on. So to see that it is actually still solving. As for the graph it looks like the load is applied a bit too fast at the start and hence the bisection (red vertical lines) cutting back the load in order to converge.
All the best