as mentioned earlier, it appears that the shell setup runs under is unable to expand userdesktop
perhaps in your install.cmd you can test by adding a line like below beffore the line for silent setup (assuming c:\temp exists)
if this works, you will need to see if anything got written to the c:\temp folder
I suspect it is trying to create desktop icons but unable to locate or unable to access whatever userdesktop is pointing to
this is an experiment, hope it helps find the root cause.
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